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Friday, February 13, 2026

Updates: The US government and STEM research

Now that we're 6 weeks into the new year, I think it's worth it to do an incomplete roundup of where we are on US federal support of STEM research.  Feel free to skip this post if you don't want to read about this.  
  • Appropriators in Congress largely went against the FY26 presidential budget request, and various spending bills by and large slightly-less-than level-funded most US science agencies. A physics-oriented take is here. The devil is in the details.  The AAAS federal R&D dashboard lets you explore this at a finer level.  Nature has an interactive widget that visualizes what has been cut and what remains.
  • Bear in mind, that was just year 1 of the present administration.  All of the effort, all of the work pushing back against proffered absolutely draconian, agency-destroying cuts?  That likely will have to be done again this year.  And in subsequent years, if the administration still invests effort in pushing enormously slashed budgets in their budget requests.
  • There is an issue of Science with the whole news section about how the past year has changed the science funding and pipeline in the US.
  • In NSF news, the rate of awards remains very low, though there is almost certainly a major delay because of the lateness of the budget, coping with reduced staffing levels, and restructuring now that Divisions no longer exist.  How greater emphasis on specific strategic priorities (beyond what is in the program calls) will affect operations remains unclear, at least to me.
  • Also, some NSF graduate research fellowship applications, especially in the life sciences, seem to be getting kicked back without review - see here (sorry about the paywall).  This seems to be a broad research area issue, despite no information to applicants about this (that lack of information flow is perhaps unsurprising).  
  • I'm not well-immersed in the world of NIH and the FDA, but I know things are bad.  Fifteen out of 27 of the NIH institutes have vacant or acting director positions.  The FDA declined to even take the application for Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, a move not popular even with the Wall Street Journal.  Moderna has also decided to shelve promising vaccines for a number of diseases because they no longer think the US will be a market for them, and it practically seems like someone wants to bring back polio.  (Note:   I will not have the comments become a back-and-forth about vaccines.)
  • The back and forth about indirect cost rates continues, along with the relevant court cases.  The recent appropriations have language to prevent sudden changes in rates.  The FAIR model is not yet passed.
  • Concerns still loom about impoundment.
  • There has been an exodus of technically trained PhDs from government service.
  • I could go on.  I know I've left out critical areas, and I haven't talked about DOE or NASA or DOD or EPA or NOAA explicitly.  
Honest people can have discussions about the right balance of federal vs state vs industrial vs philanthropic support for research.  There are no easy answers in the present time.  For those who think that robust public investment in science and engineering research is critical to societal good, economic competitiveness, and security, we need to keep pushing and not let fatigue or fatalism win the day.  


  

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do you have any statistics / data on how this uncertainty and chaos has affected especially early career researchers? It’s already been getting harder and harder for new PIs to get established. I bet they are disproportionately feeling the impact of this climate relevant to senior / established investigators.

Anonymous said...

NCAR (part of NOAA I guess) is being broken up and its supercomputers are being "transition[ed] to a third party". Maybe AI data centers? Bleak.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/13/weather/trump-colorado-lab-ncar-supercomputer-climate

Anonymous said...

It's unfortunate that you didn't address the DoD or, more importantly, the IC. The funding widgets that you linked are nice, but they don't address the elephant in the room. If you go back and review the White House's 2026 budget request for science and DoD funding, and then cross-reference this with previous years' reported IC funding (the IC funding is, naturally, classified, and the government only publishes a total figure after the GFY is over) you will see that overall funding for physics-related research was actually requested to increase by at least $10B, which is more than the total budget of the NSF across all disciplines. I don't believe there is a physics funding crisis in America; rather, there is a fundamental realignment that the academic community and professoriate has mostly failed to recognize. For all the hand-wringing articles in Nature about the funding situation, nobody appears to have listened to Hegseth's November 7th speech about the elimination of JCIDS and the belief across the IC about the predicted date for a PRC incursion on Taiwan in late 2027. All of this is connected. The bipartisan, cross-agency message has been clear: prioritize small businesses, reduce costs, and deliver faster. Funding is being reallocated from university research into the defense community because the administrative and ideological inefficiencies of universities mean that they are not aligned with the needs of the nation for the latter half of this decade. There will of course be some winners among the losers. Those PI's who have connections to IC and restricted DoD funding will probably do well; those who only rely on NSF probably won't. Better yet, found a startup. Make sure you (and your lab) are eligible to obtain a clearance.

Douglas Natelson said...

Anon, I didn’t say there is a physics funding crisis. There is a crisis of science support in the US because the leadership (a) literally does not believe in expertise and thinks it’s a grift; (b) has deliberately pared away actual expertise for the same reason; (c) has chosen to erode the institutions that lead to the long term technical progress and technically skilled workforce that have powered the US economy for decades; (d) has decided that anything to do with climate, renewable energy, and apparently the germ theory of disease is politically anathema. DOD funds in the present budget are shifting away from 6.1 (long term research) and toward shorter term deliverables. I’ve worked with DOD before and I’ve met people in the IC - I’m not completely unaware of that world. I have to say, you will have to try pretty hard and present me with actual evidence to convince me that the chaos of what has happened in the last year in terms of all of this has been some carefully crafted plan aimed at countering the PRC.

Anonymous said...

Different anon here: 2027 is the date that China *gains the capability to invade*, not the date that it will invade. Taiwanese experts said that even if it has the capability to invade, it will not necessarily win.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/11/29/2003848035

See also: "Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan."
https://www.stimson.org/2025/rethinking-the-threat-why-china-is-unlikely-to-invade-taiwan/